Edmund S. Phelps
1．2006 Nobel Prize in Economics
2．Fellow of the National Academy of Science (1982)
3．Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association (2000)
4．Chevalier of the Legion of Honor (2008)
5．Premio Pico della Mirandola for humanism (2008)
6．Kiel Global Economy Prize (2008)
1．“Edmund S. Phelps: Interview”, in Roads to Wisdom: Conversations with Ten Nobel Laureates in Economics, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2009.
2．“Entrepreneurship, culture and openness,” Edmund Phelps and Gylfi Zoega, in Entrepreneurship and Openness: Theory and Evidence, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc., 2009.
3．“Toward a Model of Innovation and Performance Along the Lines of Knight, Keynes, Hayek, and M. Polanyí,” in Entrepreneurship, Growth, and Public Policy, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
4．“The uncertain direction of the world economy,” in Journal of Policy Modeling, June 2009
5．“Amidst ‘Theory Wars’ in TwentiethCentury Economics,” in William Breit and Barry T. Hirsch ed., Lives of the Laureates: Twentythree Nobel Economists, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 2009.
6．“Interest rate setting in the presence of investment prospects and Knightian uncertainty,” in Roger E.A. Farmer ed., Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large, Northampton, MA, Edward Elgar, 2008.
7．“Beware the Smothering of Economic Dynamism”, Forbes, November 10, 2008.
8．“The Good Life and the Good Economy: The Humanist Perspective of Aristotle, the Pragmatists and the Vitalists, and the Economic Justice of John Rawls”, in Arguments for a Better World: Essays in Honor of Amartya Sen, ed. Kaushik Basu and Ravi. Kanbur. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.
9．“Corporatism and Keynes: His Philosophy of Growth,” L. Pecchi and G. Piga, eds., Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998, pages 95104. From the conference Keynes’ General Theory after Seventy Years, Santa Colomba (Siena), July 4, 2006.
10．“How Should Economists Model the Future?” JeanMichel Lasry and Damien Fessler (eds.) Finance and Sustainable Development: Opposition or Partnership? Paris, Economica, 2008.
11．“A Structuralist Model of the Small Open Economy in the Short, Medium and Long Run,” with Hian Teck Hoon, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 29, June 2007, pp. 227254.
12．“Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy,” 2006 Nobel Prize Lecture in Economics, American Economic Review, 97, 3, June 2007, 543561; and in Les Prix Nobel 2006, Stockholm: May 13, 2007.
13．“The Economic Performance of Nations: Prosperity Depends on Dynamism, Dynamism on Institutions.” Conference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and the Growth Mechanism of the Free
14．Market Economies. In Eytan Sheshinski, et al, ed., Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and the Growth Mechanism of Free Enterprise Economies, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007, 342356.
15．“Understanding the Great Changes in the World: Gaining and Losing Ground Since World War II,” Capitalism and Society, 1,2, Article 2 (available at www.bepress.com/cas), September 2006.
16．“Interest Rate Setting in the Presence of Investment Prospects and Knightian Uncertainty,” Lecture, Festschrift for Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA, Los Angeles, August 3031, 2006.
17．“Great CatchUps and FallBacks I Have Seen: And Their Misinterpretations,” Lecture, 14th World Congress, International Economic Assn., Marrakech, Sept. 2, 2005. Revised for Irish Economic Association 20th Annual Conference, Bunclody, April 27, 2006.
18．“The Continent’s High Unemployment: Possible Institutional Causes and Some Evidence,” Keynote Lecture, Conference on Unemployment in Europe, CESifo, Munich, 12 December 2002. Published in Martin Werding, (ed.), Structural Unemployment in Western Europe: Reasons and Remedies, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2006, 5374.
19．“Changing Prospects, Speculative Swings: The Links through Real Asset Prices and Exchange Rates,” Reykjavik, Conference on Swings and Growth, 1112 June 2004. Revised version,
20．“Prospective Shifts, Speculative Swings: “Macro” for the TwentyFirst Century in the Tradition Chamiponed by Paul Samuelson” in Michael Szenberg, et al (ed.), Samuelson Economics and the TwentyFirst Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
21．“La ContrePerformance de l’Europe Continentale: Le lien entre institutions, dynamisme et prospérité,” Revue de l’OFCE, 93, April 2005.
22．“Capital Subsidies versus Labor Subsidies: A TradeOff between Capital and Employment?” with Alberto Petrucci, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37, 5, October 2005, 90722.
23．“A Dynamic Theory of the ChinaU.S. Trade: Making Sense of the Imbalances,” with Amar Bhide, Working Paper no. 4, Center on Capitalism and Society, July 2005.
24．“Economic Prosperity and the Dynamism of Economic Institutions,” The Shaw Distinguished Lecture, Singapore, 23 January 2003 and the Chatham House Lecture, London, 18 March 2003, in W. T. H. Koh and R. Mariano, eds., The Economic Prospects of Singapore, AddisonWesley/Pearson, Singapore, 2005, 299333.
25．‘Some notes on monetary and unemployment,’ in Willi Semmler (ed), Monetary Policy and Unemployment, London: Routledge, 2005, 1619.
26．“The Structuralist Perspective on Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level and Employment Path: What Room is Left for Money?” with Hian Teck Hoon and Gylfi Zoega. Conference on Monetary Policy and the Labor Market in Honor of James Tobin,” in Willi Semmler, ed., Monetary Policy and Unemployment, London: Routledge, 2005, 107132.
27．“Effects of China’s Recent Development in the Rest of the World,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, 89, December 2004, 903910.
28．“Employment, Inflation and Sustainable Growth,” Beijing May Conference, Renmin University, May 30, 2004.
29．“The Boom and the Slump: a Causal Account of the 1990s/2000s and the 1920s/1930s.” Given at the Duke/UNC Economic History Conference, Understanding the 1990s: The Economy in LongRun Perspective, 2627 March 2004. Journal of Policy Reform, 7, no. 1, March 2004, 319.
30．“What Structuralism Is – and What Errors and Omissions of SupplySide and RBC Models It Avoids,” in K. Velupillai, ed., The Fitoussi Festschrift, London: Routledge, 2004.
31．“Low Wage Employment Subsidies in a LaborTurnover Model of the ‘Natur Rate’,” with Hian Teck Hoon, Columbia University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper 969705, November 1996, revised November 1997, January 1998. Prepared for the Russell Sage Foundation conference, Policies to Increase Pay and Jobs among Less Advantaged Workers, November 1997. Published in Phelps, ed., Designing Inclusion: Tools to Raise Lowend Pay and Employment in Private Enterprise, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
32．“Introduction,” in Phelps, ed., Designing Inclusion: Tools to Raise Lowend Pay and Employment in Private Enterprise, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
33．“Reflections on Parts III and IV,” in Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Woodford, eds., Knowledge, Information and Expectations: In Honor of Edmund Phelps, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2003, 550563.
34．“Reflections on Parts I and II,” in Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Woodford, eds., Knowledge, Information and Expectations: In Honor of Edmund Phelps, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2003, 27181.
35．“Asset Prices, the Real Exchange Rate and Unemployment in a Small Open Economy: A MediumRun Structuralist Perspective,” in Arie Arnon and Warren Young, eds., The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, Present and Future, Dordrecht and Boston, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002.
36．“Income Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts: Hazards to Efficiency, Equity, Employment and Growth,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, no. 4, July 2002, 391399.
37．“BalancedBudget Restraint in Taxing Income from Wealth in the Ramsey Model” in Inequality and Tax Policy, Washington D.C., American Enterprise Institute, 2001.
38．“Structural Booms: Productivity Expectations and Asset Valuations,” Economic Policy, CEPR, 32, April 2001, 85126.
39．“Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?” with J.P. Fitoussi, D. Jestaz and G. Zoega, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, 2000, 237311
40．‘Education and the natural rate of unemployment,’ with J. M. Orszag and G. Zoega, Oxford Economic Papers, January 2000.
41．‘Lessons in naturalrate dynamics,’ Oxford Economic Papers, January 2000.
42．“Behind this Structural Boom: the Role of Asset Valuations,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 89, May 1999.
43．“Effectiveness of Macropolicies in Small OpenEconomy Dynamic Aggregative Models,” in Wm. C. Brainard, Wm. D. Nordhaus and H. W. Watts, eds., Money, Macroeconomics, and Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of James Tobin, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999.
44．“Moral Hazard and Independent Income in a Modern IntertemporalEquilibrium Model of Involuntary Unemployment and Mandatory Retirement,” in G. Chichilnisky, ed., Markets, Information and Uncertainty, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
45．“Naturalrate theory and OECD unemployment,” with Gylfi Zoega, Economic Journal, 108, May 1998, 782801.
46．“The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate,” with Gylfi Zoega, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 87, May 1997.
47．‘Growth, wealth and the natural rate: Is Europe’s jobs crisis a growth crisis?’ with Hian Teck Hoon, European Economic Review, 41, April 1997.
48．“Payroll Taxes and VAT in a LaborTurnover Model of the ‘Natural Rate’,” with HianTeck Hoon, International Tax and Public Finance, v. 3, June 1996, 185201.
49．“Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity in the Neoclassical Theory with and without Bequests,” with George Kanaginis, Finanz Archiv, 51 (New Series), No. 2, 1994.
50．“ProKeynesian and CounterKeynesian Implications of the ‘Structuralist’ Theory of Unemployment and Interest under the Classic Two‑Sector View of Capital and Production,” in Taxation in the United States and Europe, Anthonie Knoester, ed., London: Macmillan, 1993. [Also Columbia University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper 494, August 1990.]
51．“Macroeconomic Shocks in a Dynamized Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” with Hian‑Teck Hoon, American Economic Review, v.82 (September 1992).
52．“Consumer Demand and Equilibrium Unemployment in a Customer‑Market Incentive‑Wage Economy,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, v.106 (August 1992).
53．“Testing ‘Keynesian’ Unemployment Theory against ‘Structuralist’ Theory: Global Evidence from the Past Two Decades,” Issues in Contemporary Economics: Proceedings of the 9th World Congress of the International Economic Association, M. Nerlove, ed., London: Macmillan, 1991
54．”A Working Model of Slump and Recovery from Disturbances to Capital‑Goods Demand in a Closed Non‑Monetary Economy,” International Monetary Fund, Research Department, Working Paper 88/92, August 23, 1988, pp. 16 + fig., in Edward J. Nell and Willi Semmler, eds., Nicholas Kaldor and Mainstream Economics, London: Macmillan, 1991.
55．“The Effects of Productivity, Total GDP Demand, and ‘Incentive Wages’ on Unemployment in a Non‑Monetary Customer‑Market Model of the Small Open Economy,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 92, 2 (March 1990).
56．“Fiscal Stimulus and Employment at Home and Abroad in a Real Two‑Country Customer‑Market Model,” Rivista di Politica Economica, v. 79 December 1989, 157‑181.
57．“New Channels in the Transmission of Foreign Shocks,” in Guillermo Calvo, Ronald Findlay and others, eds., Debt, Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Diaz‑Alejandro. Oxford: Blackwell, 1989.
58．“A Working Model of Slump and Recovery from Disturbances to Capital‑Goods Demand in an Open Non‑Monetary Economy,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, v. 78, no. 2 (May 1988).
59．”Optimum Fiscal Policy When Monetary Policy is Bound by a Rule,” with K. Velupillai, in K.J. Arrow and M.J. Boskin, eds., The Economics of Public Debt, (Macmillan, 1988, for the International Economics Association: London).
60．”Causes of the 1980’s Slump in Europe,” with J.P. Fitoussi, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 16, No. 2 (December 1986); trans. and adapted, “Politique economique aux Etats‑Unis et croissance du chomage en Europe,” Observations et diognostics economiques, No. 18, January 1987.
61．”The Effectiveness of Macropolicies in a Small Open‑Economy Dynamic Aggregative Model,” Discussion Paper No. 63, Banca d’Italia, May 1986; published in Money, Macroeconomics, and Economic Policy: Essays in Honor of James Tobin, Wm. C. Brainard, W. D. Nordhaus, and H. W. Watts, eds., Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1991.
62．”Profits Theory and Profits Taxation,” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 33, December 1986.
63．”The Significance of Customer Markets for the Effects of Budgetary Policy in Open Economies,” International Institute for Economic Studies, Seminar Paper No. 315, University of Stockholm. Published, Annales d’Enomomie et de Statistique, Vol. 1, No. 3 (September 1986). IIES Reprint Series No. 330.
64．”The Trouble with Rational Expectations and the Problem of Inflation Stabilization,” in R. Frydman and E.S. Phelps, eds., Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes:’ Rational Expectations’ Examined (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
65．”Implicit Contracts and the Social Contract” in R. Dornbusch and M.E. Simonson, eds., Inflation, Debt and Indexation, (Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 1983).
66．”Cracks on the Demand Side: A Year of Crisis in Theoretical Macro economics,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1982.
67．”A Model of Non‑Walrasian General Equilibrium: Its Pareto Inoptimality and Pareto Improvement,” with Guillermo .A. Calvo. Presented at the Columbia‑Yale‑Brookings Conference in Memory of Arthur M. Okun, September 1981. Published in James Tobin, ed., Macroeconomics, Prices and Quantities: Essays in Memory of Arthur M. Okun (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1983).
68．”Introduction: Taxation, Redistribution and Growth,” in E.S. Phelps, Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Volume 2, Redistribution and Growth (New York: Academic Press, 1980).
69．”Introduction: Developments in Non‑Walrasian Theory,” in E.S. Phelps, Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Vol 1, Employment and Inflation (New York: Academic Press, 1979).
70．”On the Concept of Optimal Taxation in the Overlapping‑Generations Model of Economic Growth,” with J.A. Ordover, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 12 (August 1979)
71．”Obstacles to Curtailing Inflation,” Essays in Post‑Keynesian Inflation, J.H. Gapinski and C.E. Rockwood,eds., (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Pub. Co., 1979).
72．”Disinflation without Recession: Adaptive Guideposts and Monetary Policy,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. Bank 114 (December 1978).
73．”Trans‑National Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a TwoCountry Model of Dynamic Equilibrium,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplementary Volume 7 of the CarnegieRochester Series on Public Policy, NorthHolland Pub. Co., 1978.
74．”Inflation Planning Reconsidered,” Economica, Vol. 45 (May 1978).
75．”CommoditySupply Shock and FullEmployment Monetary Policy,” Journal of oney, Credit and Banking, Vol. 10 (May 1978).
76．“Rawlsian Growth: Dynamic Programming of Capital Wealth for Intergeneration ‘Maximin’ Justice,” with J.G. Riley, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 45 (February 1978).
77．”Indexation Issues: Comments on Fischer and Blinder,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplementary Volume 5 of the CarnegieRochester Series on Public Policy, Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, North Holland Pub. Co., 1977; and “Appendix: Employment‑Contingent Wage Contracts,” with G. A. Calvo, idem. 149167
78．“Recent Development in Welfare Economics: Justice et Equite,” in M.D. Intrillagator, ed., Frontiers of Quantitative Economics, Vol. III (Amsterdam: North‑Holland Publishing Co., 1977)
79．“Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations,” with J.B. Taylor, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85 (February 1977).
80．“Linear ‘Maximin’ Taxation of Wage and Property Income on a “Maximin’ Growth Path,” in B.A. Balassa and R.R. Nelson, eds., Economic Progress, Private Values and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of William Fellner (Amsterdam: North‑Holland, 1976).
81．“Social Policy and Uncertain Careers: Beyond Rawls’s Paradigm Case,” in R.E.Grieson, ed., Urban and Public Economics: Essays in Honor of William Vickrey (Boston: Lexington Books, 1976).
82．“Linear Taxation of Wealth and Wages for Intergenerational Lifetime Justice: Some Steady‑State Cases,” with J.A. Ordover, American Economic Review, Vol 65 (September 1975).
83．”Stopover Monetarism: Supply and Demand Factors in the 1972‑74 Inflation,” in D. Meiselman, ed. The Phenomenon of Worldwide Inflation, (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C. 1974); also in The Japan ‑ U.S. Assembly; Proceedings of a Conference on Japan ‑ U.S. Economic Policy (AEI, Washington, D.C., 1975).
84．”The Indeterminacy of GameEquilibrium Growth in the Absence of an Ethic,” in E.S. Phelps, ed., Altruism, Morality and Economic Theory (New York: Basic Books, 1975).
85．”Comment (on D.F.Gordon),” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, supplement, Vol. 6, (The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets), 1976
86．”Taxation of Wage Income for Economic Justice,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 87 (August 1973); reprinted in E.S.Phelps, ed., Economic Justice (Harmondworth: Penguin, 1974).
87．”Comment (On Stein/Infante),” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 5, No. 1, Pt. 2 (February 1973).
88．”Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance,” Swedish Journal of Economics (formerly Ekonomisk Tidschrift), Vol. 2 (New Series), No. 1 (January‑March 1973).
89．”Some Macroeconomics of Population Leveling,” Proceedings of the U. S. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, 1972.
90．“The Statistical Theory of Racism and Sexism,” American Economic Review, Vol. 62 (December 1972); reprinted in Alice Amsden, ed., The Economics of Women and Work (Penguin, 1980).
91．”Money, Public Expenditure and the Labor Supply,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 5 (August 1972).
92．“Inflation Expectations and Economic Theory,” in N. Swan and D. Wilton, eds., Inflation and the Canadian Experience, Kingston, Ontario: Industrial Relation Centre, Queen’s University, 1971, pp. 31‑47.
93．“Money, Public Debt,Inflation and Real Interest,” with E. Burmeister, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 3 (May 1971).
94．”Optimal Price Policy under Atomistic Competition,” with S. G. Winter Jr., in E. S. Phelps, et al., Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York: Norton, 1970.
95．“Public Debt, Taxation and Capital Intensiveness,” with K. Shell, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 1 (October 1969).
96．“Population Increase, Reply,” (to J. Isbister), Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 2 (August 1969)
97．“On Short Run Employment and Real Wage Rate Under Market‑Clearing Commodity Price,” International Economic Review, Vol. 10 (June 1969).
98．“The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 59 (May 1969); revised version in E.S. Phelps et al., Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York: Norton, 1970.
99．“The Optimal Rate of Growth of Money: Comment,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76 (August 1968, Part 2).
100．“Money‑Wage Dynamics and Labor‑Market Equilibrium,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76 (August 1968, Part 2); an altered version in E. S. Phelps, et al., Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, (New York: Norton, 1970), reprinted in P.G. Korliras and R.S. Thorn, eds., Modern Macroeconomics (New York, Harper and Row, 1979).
101．“Population Increase,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 35 (August 1968).
102．“Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time: Reply (to J.W. Williamson),” Economica, Vol. 35 (August 1968).
103．“On Second‑Best National Saving and Game‑Equilibrium Growth,” with R.A. Pollak, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 35 (April 1968).
104．“Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time,” Economica, Vol. 34 (August 1967)
105．“A Model of Induced Invention, Growth and Distribution,” with E.M. Drandakis, Economic Journal, Vol. 76 (December 1966).
106．“Investments in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth,” with R.R. Nelson, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 56 (May 1966), reprinted in R.A. Wykstra, ed., Human Capital Formation and Manpower Development (New York, Free Press, 1971).
107．”Models of Technical Progress and the Golden Rule of Research,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 33 (April 1966).
108．“Factor Price Frontier Estimation of a ‘Vintage’ Production Model of the Postwar U.S. Non‑Farm Business Sector,” with C. D. Phelps, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48 (August 1966).
109．“Second Essay on the Golden Rule of Accumulation,” American Economic Review Vol. 55 (September 1965).
110．“Anticipated Inflation and Economic Welfare,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 73 (February 1965).
111．“The New View of Investment: Reply (to R.C.O. Matthews),” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 78 (February 1964).
112．“Substitution, Fixed Proportions, Growth, and Distribution,” International Economic Review, Vol. 4 ( September 1963).
113．“The Golden Rule of Accumulation: Reply (to I.F.Pearce),” American Economic Review, Vol. 52 (December 1962).
114．“The New View of Investment: A Neoclassical Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 76 (November 1962); reprinted in J.E. Stiglitz and H. Uzawa, eds., Readings in the Theory of Economic Growth (M.I.T. Press, 1969).
115．”The Accumulation of Risky Capital: A Sequential Utility Analysis,” Econometrica, Vol. 30 (October 1962); reprinted in D.H. Hester and J. Tobin, eds., Risk Aversion and Portfolio Choice (Wiley, 1968); J.L. Bicksler and P.A. Samuelson, eds., Investment Portfolio DecisionMaking (Lexington Books, 1974).
116．“The Golden Rule of Accumulation: A Fable for Growthmen,” American Economic Review, vol. 51 (September 1961); reprinted in A.K. Sen, ed., Readings in Economic Growth Theory (Penguin, 1969) and other anthologies. Trans.: Hungarian, Japanese.
117．“A Test for the Presence of Cost Inflation in the U.S.Economy 1955‑57,” Yale Economic Essays, Vol.1 (January 1961).